February 22, 2019 Ralph Ragette

3 Reasons Why We Are Not Heading Toward Another Housing Crash


Buyer confidence and high demand remain strong in Westchester County while our local home inventory remains historically low.  Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions most will make in their lifetime.  This blog’s main purpose is to help educate the consumer on the real estate process and to provide up-to-date information on our local market conditions.

Today I would like to talk to you about Housing Crashes


With home prices softening, some are concerned that we may be headed toward the next housing crash. However, it is important to remember that today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago.

Here are three key metrics that will explain why:

  1. Home Prices
  2. Mortgage Standards
  3. Foreclosure Rates

HOME PRICES

A decade ago, home prices depreciated dramatically, losing about 29% of their value over a four-year period (2008-2011). Today, prices are not depreciating. The level of appreciation is just decelerating.

Home values are no longer appreciating annually at a rate of 6-7%. However, they have still increased by more than 4% over the last year. Of the 100 experts reached for the latest Home Price Expectation Survey, 94 said home values would continue to appreciate through 2019. It will just occur at a lower rate.

MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Many are concerned that lending institutions are again easing standards to a level that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a quarterly index which,

“… measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to defaul – that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

Last month, their January Housing Credit Availability Index revealed:

“Significant space remains to safely expand the credit box. If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.”

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY

Within the last decade, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) made up 35% of all home sales. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association revealed just last week that:

“The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent… This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1996.”

Bottom Line

After using these three key housing metrics to compare today’s market to that of the last decade, we can see that the two markets are nothing alike.


Source: KCM Ralph Ragette Blog

To assure that you make the best possible decisions, it’s important that you have a knowledgeable agent on your side who is an expert in the local real estate market.  Our goal is to provide you with as much information as needed to make well-informed decisions throughout your home purchase or home sale in Westchester County, New York. 

To Search ALL Westchester County Real Estate Listings, visit www.Ragette.com

To reach Ralph, please call (or text) 914-202-1101 or send an email to Ralph@WestchesterHomeAdvisor.com

Ralph Ragette

Ralph Ragette, Ragette Real Estate. Ralph is a 5th generation Realtor in Westchester County New York. His firm was started by his great-great grandfather in 1885.