April 26, 2018 Ralph Ragette

“Short of a war or stock market crash…”


Buyer confidence and high demand remain strong in Westchester County while our local home inventory remains historically low.  Purchasing a home is one of the largest financial decisions most will make in their lifetime.  This blog’s main purpose is to help educate the consumer on the real estate process and to provide up-to-date information on our local market conditions.

Today I would like to talk to you about The Effect of Mortgage Interest Rates on Home Prices


This month, Arch Mortgage Insurance released their spring Housing and Mortgage Market Review. The report explained that an increase in mortgage rates and/or home prices would impact monthly payments this way:

  • A 5% increase in home prices increases payments by roughly 5%
  • A 1% rise in interest rates increases payments by roughly 13% or 14%

That begs the question…

What if both rates and prices increase as predicted?

The report revealed:

“If interest rates and home prices rise by year-end in the ballpark of what most analysts are forecasting, monthly mortgage payments on a new home purchase could increase another 10–15%. That would make 2018 one of the worst full-year deteriorations in affordability for the past 25 years.”

The percent increase in mortgage payments would negatively impact affordability. But, how would affordability then compare to historic norms?

Per the report:

“For the U.S. overall, even if affordability were to deteriorate as forecasted, affordability would still be reasonable by historic norms. That is because the percentage of pre-tax income needed to buy a typical home in 2019 would still be similar to the historical average during 1987–2004. Thus, nationally at least, even with higher rates and home prices, affordability will just revert to historical norms.”

What about home prices?

A decrease in affordability will cause some concern about home values. Won’t an increase in mortgage payments negatively impact the housing market? The report addressed this question:

“Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared…Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.”

To this point, Arch Mortgage Insurance also revealed their Risk Index which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. The index is based on factors such as regional unemployment rates, affordability, net migration, housing starts and the percentage of delinquent mortgages.

Below is a map depicting their projections (the darker the blue, the lower the probability of a price decrease):

“Short of a war or stock market crash…” | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

If interest rates and prices continue to rise as projected, the monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased a year from now will be dramatically more expensive than it would be today.


Source: KCM Ralph Ragette Blog

To assure that you make the best possible decisions, it’s important that you have a knowledgeable agent on your side who is an expert in the local real estate market.  Our goal is to provide you with as much information as needed to make well-informed decisions throughout your home purchase or home sale in Westchester County, New York. 

To Search ALL Westchester County Real Estate Listings, visit www.Ragette.com

To reach Ralph, please call (or text) 914-202-1101 or send an email to Ralph@WestchesterHomeAdvisor.com

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